We are in the beginning of June and in a few days, the World Test Championship final will be upon us. India and New Zealand have reached the finals rather convincingly. Over the last couple of years, England and India have played the most number of tests with India emerging victors in more than 75% of the games. In contrast, New Zealand have played in 6 less tests and have almost the same win loss record. Both the teams are evenly matched and the finals promises to be a closely fought contest.
How do the teams match?
New Zealand, especially under Williamson, have achieved a lot over the last 3 years. Williamson seems to have infused the team with much needed confidence and has made them believe that they can compete with the best in the world. Perhaps, his confidence flows from his own brilliant batting. This has certainly filtered on the rest of the players. Trent Boult, who will easily go down and the best New Zealand bowler after Hadlee has certainly gained in maturity and confidence under Williamson. All of this was achieved by playing the game fair and square.
India on the otherhand, is led by one of the most combative player in world cricket. Kohli the batsman is absolutely brilliant. His scoring ability in every country stands proof of that. It is something even Williamson will envy. However, the behaviour of Kohli on the field is nothing short of absurd. The wild celebration for every wicket, the abuse of opponents and various other rude behaviour comes to mind. Nonetheless, he is the most successful Indian captain in terms of wins.
All said and done, his recent captaincy record outside of India does not inspire that much confidence on his ability to read the game when conditions are in the opponent’s favour. He lost the last series in South Africa, in England and he lost the lone test in Australia. Not to mention his the World Cup and Champions Trophy defeats. The lack of a silverware will certainly rankle him and he will want to make amends in the finals.
Single point difference
The ICC rankings have India and New Zealand as No.1 & No. 2 and separated by a single point. There is nothing to choose between the teams in terms of ability. A Kohli finds his match in Williamson. A Pujara finds his match Taylor and a Bumrah finds his match in Boult. All of them, on their day, are more than capable of match winning performance. The winner will come down to whoever handles pressure that much better.
Who starts as the favourites?
Dilip Vengsarkar, who knows a thing or two about playing in England, feels that New Zealand starts as the favourites.
Of course, New Zealand will have an advantage because they play two Tests before the WTC final. It will help them. How quickly India adapts to the conditions will be important. But, New Zealand would have already had two Tests experience and would be playing in their third Test on the trot against India, while it will be the first on the tour for Kohli And Co.”
New Zealand starts the game as favourites though not firm favourites. This is mainly because of the fact that the conditions in New Zealand and in England are almost the same. The ball usually swings in England. This is something NZ have got used to because the ball swings in their country as well. The only difference is that the match will be played with Dukes ball whereas India and New Zealand have not used Dukes except when playing in England.
Not only New Zealand will feel at home but they also have the added advantage of playing a couple of tough tests against England. This is a double edged sword. These tests can work to their advantage but at the sametime, this tests could end as a disaster for New Zealand.
First, they could lose one or both the games. This will severely dent their confidence. The batsmen can be dismissed cheaply and the bowlers can go for runs.
Second, the bowlers may end up being over bowled and may perhaps be tired before the finals.
Third, there is a real possibility of someone injuring himself.
Gavaskar certainly thinks all of these are real
“The pessimists are suggesting that playing two Tests before the WTC finals will be a huge plus for the Kiwis as they will be match ready and better acclimatised to the conditions. The flip side of playing those two Tests is that New Zealand could get beaten and thus be low on morale when they take on India and there could be some injuries and niggles to some of their key players which can happen in early June in England,” Gavaskar wrote in his column in The Telegraph.
On the otherhand, if New Zealand manages to win the series, that will increase their confidence sky high. There is a saying. Confidence begets confidence.
What will be the composition of the Indian team?
Kohli, Pujara and Pant are a given. Openers will be Rohit and Shubnam. Rohit is experienced enough but he has played only one test in England. Back in 2014. Now he is an opener. Ofcourse, he seem to be confident after a successful home season but does he have the technique to survive the new ball in England? Shubnam Gill is young and impulsive. He plays for too many shots upfront. It is a recipe for disaster under swinging conditions. He had an excellent tour of Australia but his shot selection in the England series was a real dampener. Gill also seems to have a technical glitch for balls swinging away.
I really want to see Rahane replaced with either Sundar or Agarwal. Rahane has been nothing but a pale shadow of himself over the last 7 years. He has been given too big a rope to be consistent but he hasn’t. I do not expect anything from Rahane in the finals as well as in the England series. If he is not replaced, this tour could be his last.
Spin friendly wicket in Southampton
Southampton being a spin friendly surface after the first couple of days, both Ashwin and Jadeja must play. Moeen Ali has performed exceptionally well on this ground. New Zealand do not have quality spinners with them. These two will perhaps change the game in India’s favour. However it must be noted that Ashwin failed miserably in the last test at Southampton. He took only 3 wickets on a pitch on which Moeen Ali took 9. Three years have since passed by and Ashwin has remained the same despite his decent performance with the ball in the Australian series. Jadeja is not that great a threat outside of the sub-continent but he is expected to create enough scoring pressure.
As for fast bowlers, I do not think Bumrah must be a certainty. He has slightly lost his potency in the last couple of years. I am not saying that he must be dropped. All I am saying is that just think before playing him. I know it will be tough on Ishant but perhaps just perhaps, Siraj can replace him in the playing eleven. This is such a long tour that most of the members will probably play.
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