Yes, will India create history in South Africa this time? The previous series between India and South Africa started off in a dramatic fashion. On a seaming pitch, South Africa were reduced to 12 for 3 in the space of just 6 overs. It was B Kumar who was behind that extraordinary start for the team. South Africa was the first port of call before England and then Australia. It was thought that India will finally be able to create history and be the first ever Asian team to win in South Africa. Alas, it wasn’t to be. South Africa eventually won that series 1-2 but everyone who saw that series were of the opinion that with a bit of preparation, India could have easily won that series. It was clear that they were the better team.
Four years on, things have changed drastically. South Africa are not the same potent force any longer and India are on the back of a successful series win in Australia and are leading against England.
India will start as favourites
The confidence of the Indian team is at its all-time high and at the sametime, the confidence of South Africa is severely dented. Perhaps for the first time between these two teams, South Africa do not start the series as firm favourites in their own country. It is impossible to believe that this is true. The most experienced player is the South African captain Dean Elgar. Quinton is unlikely to play in a couple of tests because of the birth of his child. This makes the team even leaner in terms of experience.
The batting order is far from settled because most of the batsmen are still trying to establish themselves. The middle order revolves around the not so successful Temba Bavuma. He has played in 40-odd tests and has only one century to show for. However, the South African selectors have reimposed their faith on Bavuma and it remains to be seen whether he will be able to repay their trust.
Aiden Markram is another who is talented. There is no question on that front. Has he really be able to convert that talent into performance? Yes and no. Yes because he has scored a couple of centuries against a good Australian attack and no because his record against India is not that impressive. With the South African team short of experience and quality in the middle and lower order, a lot depends on the start Markram and Elgar is able to give the team.
South African cricket in crisis
South African cricket is in the middle of a crisis. The Social Justice and Nation Building committee have submitted their report. Graeme Smith, Mark Boucher and A B de Villiers have all been indicted because they were deemed to have been involved in conduct that was prejudicial and discriminatory on the basis of race. Cricket South Africa will launch a formal enquiry against both Smith and Boucher. This inquiry will be initiated during the series against India. Graeme Smith is the director of Cricket South Africa and Mark Boucher is the head coach of the South African national team.
“The Board has decided to institute formal enquiries into CSA employees, suppliers or contractors who are implicated by the SJN report,” a CSA statement, issued on Monday morning, read. “The Board has done so mindful of its duty to treat allegations of racism or discrimination with the utmost seriousness and in a manner that ensures fairness and due process in terms of South Africa’s labour legislation and the Constitution.”
This is bound to have an effect not just on those two in management but the whole team itself. Boucher being the head coach will find it hard to concentrate on his role with a knife hanging over his head.
Excellent bowling attack
However, it is not all doom and gloom for South Africa. They do have a potent bowling attack. The absence of Nortje is a blow but they have enough firepower within their ranks. Rabadda, Ngidi, Olivier and the uncapped but exceptionally quick Jansen will be a nightmare for any opposition. South Africa have had a mixed year in terms of test cricket and these bowlers must be itching to put that record straight.
What about India?
As for India, though it is the best chance to win the first series in South Africa, they have their own problems. Rohit Sharma, the standout batsman over the last couple of years, will miss the test series because of an injury. He had been really solid at the top of the order. His absence will certainly give the South African bowlers an opening at the top of the order. Rahul and his likely partner, Mayank Agarwal have a lot to prove. Especially Rahul, who after so many years at the highest level is yet to establish himself. It shows how he has underperformed. I have often said that Rahul is not test material and I still hold onto that.
Despite that, I cannot understand how has he been made vice-captain? The poor form of Rahane and the unavailability of Rohit has catapulted him into that position. It is understood that as soon as Rohit is back, he will become the vice-captain but I just feel that Rahul is being groomed as Kohli’s successor. If that is so, it is really sad. Ideally, Ashwin should have been the vice-captain in Rohit’s absence. Yes, he didn’t play a single test in England and is always not a sure starter outside of India. However, in this series, he is certain to play in all the games and moreover Rohit is expected to be back for the next series. Hence, this arranged is only for this series alone.
The problematic middle order
Another major problem for the team is the form of their middle order. Pujara, Kohli and Rahane have all become a liability with just one century among them in 2 years. With the vulnerability at the top and the vulnerability in the middle, India cannot confidently say that their batting order is settled. Pujara and Kohli will have to score and score huge runs because I do not trust Rahane.
Ashwin, will he standup?
Ashwin, after quite sometime, gets a chance to impress the team management that consider him as the first choice spinner outside of India. He will perhaps play in all the 3 tests. Ofcourse, he has the twin tasks of being able to contribute meaningful runs as well as pick up wickets. He may not get such an opportunity in the near future. For all the things that he claims he has gone through, this is his one chance that he must make it count.
The Indian bowling
Bumrah, Shami and if the team opts for 5-5-1 combination, Shardul are certain starters. The last spot will be a direct competition between Siraj and Ishant. For all of Ishant’s experience, I just think that this is Siraj’s time and he must be preferred. The incredible spell of fast bowling against New Zealand on a flat Kanpur track showcased his potential.
Conclusion to Will India create history in South Africa?
I am certain that India will create history and will end up winning the series. I will not however comment on the margin.