Over the last 20 years, since the Ganguly-led Indian team started to win outside of Asia, somehow, somewhere, the India vs Australia series became quite competitive and a lot of times, closely fought. Suddenly, Australia talked about the series being on par with the Ashes. During the Waugh and Ponting era, when Australia won everything under the sun, India proved difficult for them to crack. England, Pakistan, West Indies and NewZealand were simply rolled over. South Africa was tough but they could not land the final punch. It was India, right from 1996 with the exception of the 1999 Australian tour, not only matched Australia but more often than not, bettered them. India are yet to lose a series to Australia in 10 years. This is not something any team with the exception of the erstwhile West Indies can claim. Yet, this series threatens to be a series between unequal.
The form of the Indian batsmen is not only worrying but a majority of the Indian fans have already written off the team. India need to win 4-0 to qualify for next year’s WTC final. None of the supporters are expecting that. All of us will be pretty pleased if this series does not turn into a one-sided affair. Back in 1999, Jayant Lele, I think he was the secretary at BCCI, famously remarked after the squad for the tour was selected, that India will lose 0-3. The mood is quite despondent after the hammering received from New Zealand. Most of the supporters will never be able to come out of such a humiliation.
Spin trouble
The way every batsman approached the spinning pitches and the lone pitch with little bounce has made everyone think what will happen in Australia. Just before the series against New Zealand, there were a lot of expectations. Speculation ranged from India winning the series for the 3rd successive time and thereby equalling the record of South Africa to Australia winning the series narrowly. Now, the tide has turned completely. The speculation is for a clean sweep by Australia. If that happens, several careers will be at stake.
Evidence points to Australia
Australia under Cummins have formed a steel that was missing under Tim Paine and Steven Smith. Cummins is an exceptional bowler but has been a revelation as a captain. He is just like Ashwin who keeps on thinking. Australia who lost the services of Shane Warne the captain, made the right choice after the Tim Paine saga. The record under Cummins is enviable. WTC winners, ODI World Cup winners, series win in Pakistan and a drawn series in Sri Lanka. A wonderful Ashes draw against a rampaging England team away from home. Definitely, the Test side is proving to be tough nut to crack.
Added to that is the fact that the first, second and third Tests will be played on pitches that has traditionally favoured the Australian bowlers. Perth, has promised to produce the fastest pitch. Adelaide, being a day-night affair, where Australia have never lost a Test follows Perth. Brisbane Gabba for the 3rd Test will be another pacy pitch. Ofcourse, in 2020, it was at The Gabba where India created history but that was then. This is now. Most likely, the series will be done and dusted by the time the 3rd Test is finished.
Not just the current form of the Indian batsmen but the mindset itself is severely affected. They lost the fortress to an unfancied New Zealand. A defeat of that nature is bound to affect everyone involved. If another series against a less fancied side had taken place before the BGT, chances are that India could have won that series and improved the confidence. Now, to jump straight onto a pitch that promises to be quick, hard and bouncy, the Indians can only hope that they are not injured in anyway that will put their participation in next year’s IPL in jeopardy.
Bowlers vs Bowlers
Just a cursory glance at the bowling line-up between the teams gives a stark picture. Bumrah and Cummins cancels each other. Both of them are highly skilled with good enough pace. However, the rest of the Australian bowlers are all better than India’s. There is simply no comparison between Mitchell Starc and Mohammed Siraj. One is a bonafide great bowler of his era whereas the other has taken less than 3 wickets per Test. Siraj is blessed that he is born in India where there is dearth of fast bowlers. Otherwise, he will not even be considered. Hazlewood against Akash Deep or Prasidh Krishna. Where is Hazlewood and where is Akash Deep? This is Akash’s first tour to Australia. He has a longway to go before he could even be considered as a permanent in the Indian team. Prasidh Krishna used to bowl with high pace but not anymore.
When it comes to spin, Nathan Lyon is leaps ahead of both Ashwin and Jadeja. Outside of Asia, Jadeja is considered for his ability as a batsman rather than as a spinner. Ashwin is not even considered because of his inferior batting ability. Lyon has had ample amount of time to study every Indian batsman and bowl accordingly. Much depends on how India bats against Lyon. He is a specialist Test bowler in an era where everyone wants to play in any lucrative T20 leagues.
Wrapping up series between unequal
Batting-wise, it is almost similar except for two facts. One, Australia are playing at home and know the conditions pretty well. Hence, they will prevail easily. Two, Travis Head, who has taken a liking towards the Indian bowlers. I think that this series depends on the ability of the bowlers to restrict the scoring.