If England are in Australia in the month of December and will be celebrating Christmas in Australia, it can mean only onething. THE ASHES is here. The Ashes which is the predominant trophy that predates any tournament is about to start and the excitement even after 100 years is still undiminished. Even ODI and T20 World Cups pale into insignificance in front of The Ashes. Every English and Aussie supporter do not mind if their team loses to anyone else but they loathe losing to each other. Such is the passion of the Ashes. Let me offer my thoughts in England vs Australia The Ashes preview.
There are other series India against Australia or India against England or Australia / England against South Africa or Pakistan against England but none of them, absolutely none of them can even come close to matching the excitement, the flavour and the thrilling action of an Ashes. This is so even for the neutral. An Indian or a Sri Lankan will happily watch the Ashes without complaining. This series promises nothing but the same.
Over the last 30 years there has always been a clear leader amongst the teams. From 1989 till the early part of the new millennium, Australia completely dominated England and till 2011, England though they didn’t dominate Australia were easily the better team. Then there was the pattern of each team winning in their own country. However, this series promises to be different in that there is no clear winner.
England appears to be much more settled
Strangely, it is England, who usually go through some uncertainties before the Ashes, seems to be much more settled. Australia, rather unexpectedly are facing major upheaval in their preparation ahead of the much awaited series. Steve Smith returning as vice-captain and Tim Paine resigning, it has created a huge imbalance in the ranks of the Aussies. Now it is Pat Cummins, the first bowler, who has been handed over the captaincy baton with Steve Smith being closely watched. Australia have for the first time in several decades have stepped into the unknown. How will Cummins manage himself and the rest of the team? How much of a role with Smith play? What bowling combination will the teams go in with? Will Cummins over-bowl or under-bowl himself? So many questions. The answers will be known in the next 6 weeks.
The often repeated cliché is wrong
The first test starts off at The Gabba. Yes, the same Gabba that the Aussies surrendered to India last year. However, England have always found 2 venues to be tough for them to overcome. One is Gabba and the other is WACA. England will hope to come out of Gabba unscathed. It is said that the first test, day one, session one will set the tone of the series. I will not subscribe to this view at all. This is a nonsensical cliché.
To prove my point, I again will have to go back to the India series last year. India had a dreadful start losing both the openers in that first session but what happened in the end is known to everyone. It does not really matter who comes out on top at the end of the first session. What really matters is who is left standing at the beginning of the 5th test. Remember, 5 tests will be squeezed into a small matter of 6 weeks. The players, especially, the bowlers are bound to be completely tired. Australia will dread the thought if either Cummins loses his potency because being the primary wicket taker he over-bowls himself or because of captaincy pressures before the start of the final test. Come to think of it, Smith may even lead the side.
England’s immediate past in Australia
England off-late does not have fond memories of touring Australia. 2 whitewashes and a 0-4 verdict that could well have been another whitewash in 13 years is a lot to take in. Atleast in 2007, the Aussies were smarting from the 2005 Ashes defeat and wanted to avenge that and they did that in style. However, there is no excuse for losing 0-5 in 2013 and 0-4 a few years later. They were unable to find an answer for Johnson’s pace or the guile of Harris & Starc. England will do well not to repeat that again.
Anderson will not play at the Gabba
England will go into the series without their main strike bowler James Anderson. He has a calf strain and is certainly not expected to play at the Gabba. England have however insisted that they have always planned to rest Anderson from Gabba to ensure his longevity throughout the series. A noble thought but one that beggars belief. In the absence of Archer and Stone, Anderson is England’s best bowler. How can they even think of resting him from the very first test of the series is beyond me. This will leave a rather inexperienced bowling attack, with the exception of Stokes, at the mercy of Australia.
‘This is crazy nonsense and hard to believe,’ tweeted former Test batsman Damien Martyn. ‘Australia would be very happy he is not playing #mindboggles.’ Shane Warne, meanwhile, described his absence as a ‘huge loss’.
Anyway, stranger decisions are not that uncommon in the sport.
What are the chances for England?
I somehow feel that Burns and Hameed will have a huge role to play in this series. They may not score heavily but they can blunt the Aussie attack with their patience at the crease. The Australian bowlers usually expect wickets quickly. They will want things happening quickly and if it is not forthcoming, they tend to become restless. England can take advantage of that. Root & Stokes, who will have to score consistently, will be able to do that if the early sting is taken out of the Aussie attack. England does not have the bowlers to threaten Smith & Warner. Remember, this is the same bowling attack that lost the last time 0-4. The Kokkaburra ball will not swing like the Duke.
Robinson, Woakes, Anderson & Broad, who are primarily swing bowlers will not get much purchase with that ball. They will have to see the back of Warner & Smith early. If England can accomplish that, the rest of the batting will cave in early. England will have to look to score 375-400 in the first innings and get Warner & Smith early. If they can do that, they can prevail because Australia do not have the batsmen to score bucketload of runs if those two are taken care of. Labuschagne may wage a lone battle but he will not be supported. Having said that, England’s bowlers must remain fresh and supremely fit to be able to bowl out Australia time and time again.
What are the chances for Australia?
Australia playing at home with a brilliant fast bowling attack and an excellent spinner in Nathan Lyon, will start the series as favourites. Smith, Warner & Labuschagne will have to provide the bulk of the runs. Warner especially will be motivated to the fullest extent. He was snubbed by his IPL franchise and during the last Ashes in England, Broad got him for low scores in all the games. He has a point or two to prove to everyone else. If Warner starts blazing at the top, England will be hard pressed to maintain or slowdown the runrate. This will help Smith to launch his own attack on the hapless bowlers and Australia will gallop towards a huge score. I do not expect runs from the rest of the top 6. Alex Carey may prove to be the game changer but only if Smith and Warner give him a solid platform.
As for bowling, it is the same bowlers that played last year, the year before and the year before. However, they have hardly played competitive cricket with the red-ball over 8 months which means they must be fresh. Lyon will definitely play a huge role in this series. More than Starc or Cummins or Hazlewood, if Lyon manages to capture vital wickets, Australia can prevail.
Gabba – Advantage Australia
Adelaide – Advantage Australia
Melbourne – Even
Sydney – Australia slightly ahead.